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Fifty-seven years ago, Nancy Sinatra released her hit single These Boots are Made for Walkin'. Last week, another Nancy followed it up with an ill-advised trip to Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi walked all over China, provoking the superpower into an equally reckless show of military force around the self-proclaimed but universally unrecognised Republic of China, the remaining redoubt of the Nationalist government which lost the civil war in 1949.
The stated intent of Pelosi's visit was to support the democratic breakaway state; she has always been an active defender of human rights in China. But the Echidna suspects there was another motive, to shore up her own standing ahead of the November mid-term elections in the US. Travelling as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, and not as a US spokesperson, the trip was little more than symbolic goading of China's strongman leader, Xi Jinping.
Xi faces his own test later this year when China's Communist Party convenes its 20th National Congress. Expected to walk straight into an unusual third term, Xi's harsh zero-COVID policy and its disastrous effects on the Chinese economy require some kind of theatrical balm. A show of military strength provides just that, energising his increasingly nationalist fan base. Like Pelosi, his antics around Taiwan seem designed to appeal to a domestic audience.
For the rest of the world, the shadow-boxing inflames conflict at the worst possible time, when the global economy is sputtering under an energy and food crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine. China's response has not been restricted to overt sabre rattling; it's suspended talks with the US over climate change cooperation. And Australia finds itself again caught between its closest ally, the US, and its biggest customer, the People's Republic of China. So far, our government's utterances have reflexively echoed those of the US. And, predictably, they've drawn sharp rebuke from Beijing. Not everyone is comfortable with this.
Hugh White, emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has written a chilling essay, Sleepwalk to War. Australia's Unthinking Alliance with America. It questions Australia's decision to throw its lot in with the US, which he says cannot win a war with China over Taiwan. "Canberra's rhetoric helps raise the risk of the worst outcome for Australia: a war between China and America, in which we are likely to be involved," White says. "Over the past decade, and without any serious discussion, Australian governments have come to believe that America should go to war with China if necessary to preserve US primacy in Asia, and that Australia should, as a matter of course, go to war with it."
Sleepwalk to War is a confronting strategic perspective. It's a reminder that the bipolar world of the Cold War has long gone and the unipolar moment the US enjoyed after the collapse of the Soviet Union has passed too. We are now returning to a less predictable multipolar game in which there is no guarantee the US will prevail.
Sleepwalk to War will inflict a few sleepless nights on those who read it and wonder whether we're backing the right horse or should back no horse at all. You'll find it at all good newsagents and bookstores.
HAVE YOUR SAY: What do you make of Nancy Pelosi's visit? Should we always be in lockstep with the US on China? Should we steer a middle path or even try to defuse tensions between the two powers? Are you worried we'll end up fighting a war we cannot win? Email us: echidna@theechidna.com.au
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THEY SAID IT: "We could only solve our problems by cooperating with other countries. It would have been paradoxical not to cooperate. And therefore we needed to put an end to the Iron Curtain, to change the nature of international relations, to rid them of ideological confrontation, and particularly to end the arms race." - Mikhail Gorbachev
YOU SAID IT: What a timely discussion about electric vehicles, including e-bikes, given revelations about a secretive automotive industry war chest to lobby for a slowdown in the take-up of EVs. Here's what you had to say:
"My wife bought a Hyundai Kona EV, principally for range ability, more than 12 months ago. Her preference would have been a VW, but they were not available then. We've installed an EV charger, and upgraded our photovoltaic system. She is completely happy with it and was gifted a $200 petrol voucher during a recall. However if you love the Saudis, don't buy an EV," says Bernard.
David wants to wait for autonomous vehicles: "That way, I won't need to own one. I can just call for whatever I need and it will come to me."
Another David and his wife are e-bike fans: "We have one each and have ridden just over 3000km in 15 months. We hardly use the car around our country town and make use of our local cycleways. Great things!"
Brian is keen on EVs: "Yes I am keen to buy an EV once they become more readily available, better infrastructure in place, more choice and hopefully more competitive pricing."
Stephanie is sceptical: "I'm just not convinced that EVs are the long-term answer. People seem to overlook the fact that manufacturing EVs creates around 40 per cent more hydrocarbons than ICE vehicles and that's not the end of the argument. Lithium ion batteries have a life of 7-10 years to date there is no plausible recycling method which doesn't create lots more hydrocarbons so they will end up in landfill. Then there is the charging infrastructure, I watched a documentary about the 'groundbreaking' new fast charging facility at a roadhouse on the Nullarbor which uses redundant chip fat to drive a modified diesel generator. I rest my case!"
Arthur would like to get on his e-bike but is concerned about safety: "There is a scarcity of bike lanes let alone car-free roads. I tried riding a bike to work, only five kilometres, but my workmates and boss expressed grave concerns about my safety. They reminded me that there are no minor collisions between cars and bikes. The cyclist always comes off very much worse than the car and often in hospital if not the mortuary." He asked whether he'd need a licence for an e-bike. Not the pedal-assisted variety, Arthur.
At 82, Terry's traditional cycling days might be over and he's unlikely to buy a new car but he's eating up the kilometres on e-bikes. "I currently ride two as I do significant mileages (around 8000km a year). I could not do such high running on a pushy. In my pushy riding days I would do around 5-6000km a year. I strongly commend EVs and e-bikes for those interested in any sort of life for future generations."
Col is worried about range: "We live in the bush (sort of), near Corowa. The prospect of a road trip to Sydney - 600 or so kilometres - has me envisaging, firstly, finding a compatible charging point, secondly, finding one vacant, and thirdly, finding something to do the next 45 minutes or so. Not what one needs on a six or more hour trip. It doesn't make sense to me so far."
David is similarly concerned: "I watch the pricing, availability and development of electric vehicles closely. It is not just the high pricing and minimal incentive to change that worries me. It is also the transferability and development of batteries. If I buy an EV today, what are the chances that its battery configuration, quality and size will allow upgrades to the next model with range improvements etc? Once we have a real incentive to buy, decent range for those of us who live in the regions, regular charging stations and an understanding that batteries may improve and that should they, they will be transferable to my EV, then I will be there like a shot."